Key Takeaways 

The Headline Everyone’s Celebrating (And the One Nobody’s Talking About)

The 2025 data are in. And honestly? On the surface, they look pretty good. 

Revenue across the sector grew 13–16%. 62% of nonprofits saw meaningful increases. Events had a strong year — 77% of organizations met or exceeded their goals. Monthly giving grew 5% and now represents 31% of all online revenue. 

Solid year. Most boards are happy. Most EDs are exhaling. 

But here’s what’s underneath those numbers — and this is the part that keeps me up at night. 

The total donor base declined by 3%. New donor retention sat at just 14%. That means 86 out of every 100 first-time donors didn’t give again. Overall donor retention landed at 31.9% — well below the historical norm of 45–50%. 

We are raising more money from fewer people. 

Short term? It works. The goals get hit. The board meeting goes fine. But this is a slow-moving crisis. And if you’re leading a mid-size nonprofit right now, you need to understand what’s actually happening before it catches up with you — because it will. 

What the Data Is Really Telling Us

Why Is Revenue Up If Donors Are Down?

The math isn’t complicated. Major donors and monthly givers are carrying the sector right now. 

As giving from smaller donors has flattened or dropped, the organizations hitting their numbers are the ones with strong major donor relationships and growing monthly giving programs. That’s it. That’s the whole story. 

And look, that’s not inherently bad. But it is a concentration risk. A real one. 

I was on a call last month with a development director in Ohio whose top four donors represented 71% of her year-end revenue. One of them just relocated. Another is in her late eighties. That’s not a fundraising strategy — that’s a prayer. 

If your top five donors represent 60–70% of your nonprofit revenue, ask yourself: what happens when one of them shifts priorities? When a major foundation change its funding focus? When that board member who’s been quietly writing big checks decides to move on? 

Revenue growth built on a narrowing donor base is fragile. The 2025 data is the warning sign — and the time to act on it is now, while things are still going well. We went deep on building a more resilient revenue mix in our post on Nonprofit Fundraising Strategies That Actually Work. 

Why Aren’t New Donors Coming Back?

This is the question I keep coming back to. Because the answer isn’t complicated — and that’s what makes it so frustrating. 

When someone makes their first gift, they’re in a heightened emotional state. Something moved them enough to act. That moment is an open door. 

And in a nonprofit? That door gets slammed shut within 72 hours. 

Nothing happens. Or a generic auto-reply. Or they get dropped onto the same email list as everyone else — the one that goes out to 4,000 people and sounds like it was written by a committee. 

Their identity as a supporter of your organization never solidifies. By the time your next appeal lands in their inbox, they’ve moved on. 

This is not a donor problem. It’s a stewardship problem. And it’s 100% fixable. 

The first 90 days after someone’s first gift are the most critical window you have. If you don’t have a deliberate sequence for that window — not a template, an actual human sequence- you’re leaving most of your new donors on the table. We cover exactly this in our guest appearance on Mastering Donor Retention: Strategies to Prevent and Recover Lapsed Donors. 

The Psychology Behind the Numbers

Data tells us what’s happening. Psychology tells us why — and more importantly, what to do about it. 

One of the most useful frameworks I’ve built over 20 years in this work is what I call the Five Fundraising Anxiety Stages. Here’s the quick version: 

• Stage 1- Panic Mode: Every day is a crisis. Survival is the only focus. Zero bandwidth for strategy. 
• Stage 2 — Hustle Mode: Constant motion, but chaotic. Busy, not effective. Always chasing the next campaign. 
• Stage 3 — Plateau Mode: Stuck in the same patterns. Same actions, same results. Year after year.
• Stage 4 — Growth Mode: Real systems in place. Growth is intentional. 
• Stage 5 — Leverage Mode: The fundraising machine largely runs itself. Impact multiplies.  

Here’s why this matters for the 2025 data. 

A nonprofit stuck in Panic or Hustle Mode doesn’t have time to steward new donors. They’re too busy putting out today’s fire to follow up on last month’s first-time givers. A nonprofit doesn’t build monthly giving programs because that requires upfront investment; they don’t feel like they have. They avoid major donor conversations because those feel terrifying. 

The retention crisis isn’t a mystery. It’s the predictable result of a nonprofit too anxious to build systems. 

Which stage are you in right now? Be honest with yourself. If you’re not sure — take our free quiz. It takes five minutes, and it’ll tell you more than most $500 consultations.  

Why Monthly Giving Is the Highest-Leverage Move You Can Make

Monthly donors retain at 81%+. First-time donors retain at 14%. 

Read that again. Slowly. 

Monthly giving isn’t a nice-to-have. It’s the single highest-retention vehicle available to most mid-size nonprofits. And it works for three reasons that go way deeper than tactics. 

Habit formation. A monthly gift is one decision that repeats automatically. No annual friction. No re-deciding whether to give. They opted in once, and they keep going. 

Identity shift. Monthly donors see themselves differently. They’re not “someone who donated once.” They’re a monthly supporter. That identity is stickier than any transaction. 

Commitment and consistency. Once someone is in, stopping feels like breaking a promise. Most people don’t do that. 

If your monthly giving program is underdeveloped — or nonexistent — 2026 is the year to fix it. Not just because of the retention numbers. Because predictable recurring revenue means you’re not starting from zero every January. That alone changes how you show up as a leader. We got into exactly this on our guest appearance, How Nonprofits Can Scale with Better Fundraising Processes — worth a listen if monthly giving is on your radar this year. 

And if you want to go even deeper on the systems side, check out the On the Ground Podcast — we talk regularly about what building sustainable nonprofit revenue actually looks like in the real world.  

Your 2026 Strategy: Four Priorities That Will Actually Move the Needle

The 2025 data points clearly point to what matters most going into next year. None of this is complicated. But it requires real intentionality — not just nodding along. Priority 1: Fix the Retention Crisis 

Priority 1: Fix the Retention Crisis

The first 90 days after a new donor’s first gift need to be deliberate, personal, and completely distinct from your standard communications. 

Build an onboarding sequence. A real one. Welcome email within 24 hours. A thank-you call or handwritten note within a week. An impact story that connects their specific gift to a real outcome. A soft, genuine invitation to become a monthly donor. 

You don’t need a big team to do this. You need a plan and the discipline to run it every single time. 

Fix retention, and everything else gets easier. You stop bleeding donors out the back while trying to pour new ones in the front. For what consistent donor communication actually looks like in practice, our guest appearance on Messaging That Keeps Donors: The Trust Triangle is one of my favorites. 

Priority 2: Quality Over Quantity in Acquisition 

Not all new donors are created equal. I’ve said this a hundred times and I’ll keep saying it. 

Start tracking retention by acquisition channel. Where do your best donors — the loyal ones, the ones who upgrade, the ones who refer their friends — actually come from? Events? Direct mail? Board referrals? 

Once you know, go deeper there. Even if it costs more upfront. A donor who gives $500 a year for five years is worth more than ten donors who give once and disappear. Your acquisition numbers might drop. Your revenue will go up. That trade is always worth making. 

Our Nonprofit Fundraising Plans: The Definitive Guide has a solid framework for thinking through acquisition strategy if you want a place to start. 

Priority 3: Communicate More Than You Think You Should

Donors who hear from you quarterly are far less likely to give again than donors who hear from you monthly. The data backs that up consistently. 

But here’s what I want to be clear about: this doesn’t mean asking more. It means staying present. Impact stories. Program updates. The behind-the-scenes moment that made your team laugh this week. Anything that makes a donor think I’m glad I support these people when your name shows up in their inbox. 

Segment where you can. Monthly donors deserve different communication than lapsed donors. Major donors deserve something more personal than a mass email blast. The more you communicate like a human being — and less like a newsletter — the better your retention gets. 

If you want to make sure you’re actually measuring whether communication is working, our post on Impact Metrics for Nonprofit Marketing and Fundraising is worth bookmarking. 

Priority 4: Actually Invest in Major Donor Relationships 

If major donors represent 60% of your revenue, you should be spending 50–60% of your relationship-building time there. 

Most organizations aren’t even close. 

And it’s not because they don’t know it matters. It’s because those conversations feel scary. What do you say? How do you ask? What if they say no? 

Here’s what I know after 20 years: major donor cultivation isn’t magic. It’s a process. And when you have a process, the fear drops, and the results go up. Every time. Build a pipeline. Put proactive outreach on your actual calendar — not your aspirational one. Our guest appearance on Tapping Major Donors for Long-Term Impact goes deep on exactly what that process looks like. 

FAQs

Is the decline in total donors a sign that the sector is in trouble?

Not necessarily — but it’s worth taking seriously. Revenue growth built on a shrinking donor base is fragile. The organizations best positioned five to ten years from now are the ones investing in retention and monthly giving today, while the numbers are still strong enough to give them runway. 

Our retention rate is below 40%. Where do we even start?

Start with first-time donors. Build a deliberate 90-day onboarding sequence that makes new donors feel seen, valued, and connected to real impact. Then look at your lapsed donors — when was the last time you had a genuinely personal touchpoint with them? A warm re-engagement campaign can recover a meaningful percentage at very low cost. Honestly, it’s one of the highest-ROI moves available to most small and mid-size nonprofits. 

We’re a small team. How do we build a monthly giving program without adding headcount?

Start simple. A dedicated monthly giving landing page. A clear ask in your email appeals. An automated welcome sequence for new monthly donors. That’s enough to get started.

You don’t build the perfect program on day one. You build a program and improve it over time. Done beats perfect here — every time. 

How do we know which fundraising anxiety stage we’re in?

Honest self-assessment is the starting point. Are you mostly in crisis management mode, or are you operating from intentional strategy? Look at your systems — do you have documented processes for donor stewardship, major gift cultivation, and board engagement? If not, you’re likely in Plateau Mode or below. The quiz will give you a clearer read in about five minutes. 

How much time should we actually spend on major donor cultivation? 

Here’s the rule of thumb I use: your time allocation should roughly mirror your revenue concentration. If major donors represent 60% of your revenue, aim to spend 50–60% of your relationship-building time there. Most mid-size nonprofits are dramatically underinvested in this area relative to the return it produces — and that gap is usually fixable faster than people think. 

Wrapping Up

2025 was a good year for nonprofit fundraising. Revenue grew. Events thrived. Monthly giving expanded. 

But the data underneath those headlines is telling us something we can’t afford to ignore: we’re becoming more dependent on fewer, wealthier donors. And the pipeline that feeds long-term sustainability — new donor retention, monthly giving conversion, mid-level donor cultivation — is underperforming badly. 

The organizations that will thrive in 2026 and beyond aren’t chasing the biggest short-term numbers. They’re building systems. Deepening relationships. Investing in retention. Moving up the anxiety scale from survival toward something that actually lasts. 

If you want to do a real debrief of where your organization stands before you start planning your next year, our post on Year-End Fundraising Debrief: How to Turn Last Year’s Results Into This Year’s Growth is the place to start. 

The runway is right in front of you. What you do with it is up to you.